Por Mariano Cuparo Ortiz

La pobreza no dejó de crecer en abril y se acercó al 50%, más allá de que la dinámica de los precios, y en especial la de los alimentos, mostró una desaceleración importante. Según el cálculo mensual que realiza la Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT) a través del Nowcast de Pobreza, llegó al 48,9%, con un margen de error que la deja entre el 47,4% y el 50,4% para el semestre móvil que va entre noviembre y abril. En abril en particular, fue de 48%, por debajo del 51,8% del primer trimeste. La caída de 15,2% de los salarios registrados reales entre diciembre y marzo, con pérdida de empleos de calidad, siguió golpeando a los indicadores sociales.

Vale recordar que el Indec publica los datos de pobreza en forma semestral: para la segunda mitad de 2023 cerró en 41,7%, apenas por debajo de los niveles que vinieron apenas después de lo peor de la cuarentena, cuando llegó al 42%. Todo indica que el próximo dato, correspondiente al primer semestre del 2024, mostrará niveles por encima de ese 42%, e incluso por encima de toda la serie histórica actual, que arrancó en 2016. El número se parecerá más, a priori, a los de la posconvertibilidad: en el primer semestre del 2005 fue de 50,9% y en el segundo semestre de ese año del 46,5%, según estimó el Cedlas-UNLP a partir de la metodología actual.

Los salarios reales son hoy parte de las anclas antiinflacionarias, con paritarias controladas. Así, pese a la desaceleración del IPC, por ahora los salarios de empleados formales, tanto privados como públicos, y en términos reales, solo tuvieron un repunte en febrero pero entre diciembre y marzo acumularon una baja del 15,2%: bien por debajo de la inflación acumulada. Lo propio sucedió con las jubilaciones, que según el Grupo Geres, al tomar las mínimas e incluir el efecto de los bonos, cayeron 15,9% interanual y acumularon pérdidas totales, a pesos de abril, por $145.356 entre noviembre y el mes pasado.

En paralelo se observó en los últimos meses una contracción del empleo asalariado registrado: entre noviembre y febrero acumuló una caída de 1% en los puestos de trabajo y se espera otra baja extra de 0,5% en marzo, según la Encuesta de Indicadores Laborales (EIL), que realiza la Secretaría de Trabajo. Con todo, entre noviembre y febrero unas 62.900 personas perdieron su trabajo asalariado registrado en el sector privado. Es decir, sus ingresos. 

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La medición de pobreza, por cierto, lo que hace es cruzar los ingresos de la población contra los precios de la Canasta Básica Total (CBT) del Indec, que ayer mostró una desaceleración importante y quedó bastante por debajo del IPC: la suba de abril para esta marca de la línea de la pobreza fue de 7,1% (la Canasta Básica Alimentaria, que pone el listón para la línea de la indigencia, subió 4,2% y fue el mejor número desde el 3,1% de noviembre del 2022). 

De todas formas no alcanzó y según la UTDT la pobreza trepó un poco más respecto al semestre móvil octubre-marzo, aunque desaceleró la dinámica y pasó de 48,3% a 48,9%. La UTDT reseñó: “La CBT promedio del GBA para el semestre de referencia se estimó en $203,642. Esto es un aumento interanual de 265,3%. Para el promedio del ingreso total familiar (ITF) se proyectó para el semestre un incremento interanual de 196,1%. Con estos datos y la simulación de los microdatos de la EPH del cuarto trimestre de 2023 y del primer y segundo trimestre de 2024 se proyectó la tasa de pobreza. El nowcast estima una tasa de pobreza de 48,9% para el semestre noviembre-abril con un intervalo del 95% de confianza entre 47,4% y 50,4%".

Y agregó: “La incidencia proyectada se puede descomponer mecánicamente es un promedio ponderado de una tasa de pobreza de 45,2% para el bimestre noviembre-diciembre de 2023, 51,8% para el primer trimestre de 2024 y 48% para el mes de abril de 2024. Esta proyección sugiere que alrededor del 49% de las personas viven en hogares urbanos pobres. La población urbana capturada por la EPH en el semestre de referencia se estimó en 29,4 millones de personas lo que implica que alrededor de 14,4 millones viven en hogares urbanos pobres”.