Por Mariano Suárez

Con un contexto completamente distinto al de hace cuatro años, las elecciones 2023 en Mar del Plata tendrán a los mismos animadores: Guillermo Montenegro y Fernanda Raverta. El cierre de listas del último sábado terminó de darle forma al tablero que muchos se imaginaban, pero que nadie confirmaba. Ese tablero tendrá dos jugadores principales y al menos otros diez que completarán el escenario del 13 de agosto. 

El actual intendente había anunciado días antes que iría en busca de la reelección. Y sin confirmarlo, estaba claro que su boleta iría pegada a la de los dos precandidatos presidenciales de Juntos por el Cambio (Horacio Rodríguez Larreta y Patricia Bullrich). No es un dato menor: solo dos de los 58 municipios gobernados por Juntos por el Cambio lograron esa estrategia. Y además significa que por primera vez desde 1983 no haya un precandidato a intendente de la UCR. Lo que restaba saber qué nombres lo acompañarían en la boleta local y a quiénes impulsaría para la Legislatura.

En Encuentro Marplatense, el nombre que eligieron Fernanda Raverta y Gustavo Pulti tras sellar el acuerdo para estas elecciones, faltaba una resolución central: quién sería el candidato a intendente. Se presumía que la directora de Anses iría al frente de la lista, pero acordaron trabajar primero en un acuerdo programático antes de dar a conocer los nombres. El mismo sábado, ya tarde por la noche, se develaron todos los detalles: Raverta irá otra vez en busca de la Intendencia y Pulti competirá por una banca en la Legislatura provincial.

Montnegro y Raverta, sonrientes junto a Gustavo Arrieta.

Similitudes y diferencias con el 2019

Hace cuatro años Montenegro y Raverta se postularon por primera vez como candidatos a intendente, ambos con un muy bajo nivel de conocimiento en la población, aunque con el respaldo de los espacios mayoritarios. Hoy siguen en sintonía, pero con un panorama absolutamente contrario: son los dos dirigentes con mayor nivel de conocimiento de Mar del Plata.

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Los socios en aquel entonces tampoco eran los mismos. Montenegro enfrentó en las Paso a toda la estructura radical, con un Maxi Abad que empezaba a asumir el liderazgo del partido (hoy absolutamente consolidado como presidente del comité provincia) y con Vilma Baragiola como precandidata. A su lado, había otros dirigentes como Nicolás Lauría y Alejandro Carrancio, ambos hoy transitando caminos políticos, pero ya no junto a Montenegro.

A lo largo de estos cuatro años, Montenegro y Abad –que podría convertirse en el primer marplatense en llegar al Senado de la Nación- construyeron una sociedad política sólida y eso se reflejó en la lista de concejales, donde la UCR tiene dos dirigentes que con seguridad formarán parte del nuevo Concejo (Marianela Romero y Vilma Baragiola) y otro con expectativas en caso de que Juntos consiga un triunfo importante en los comicios. La tercera pata de la sociedad es la Coalición Cívica que se llevó el tercer escaño en la nómina de concejales.

Maxi Abad podría convertirse en el primer marplatense en llegar al Senado de la Nación.

Después de sus primeros cuatro años, Montenegro eligió privilegiar la relación con los partidos que forman Juntos por el Cambio y no apostar a agrupaciones o espacios de menor envergadura. “Las experiencias de Carrancio y Lauría fueron suficientes. No queremos repetir errores”, dijo un armador del espacio consultado por 0223. Agustín Neme, el elegido para encabezar la lista de concejales, inspira confianza en el oficialismo. 

Desde que anunció su candidatura, en el entorno de Montenegro repitieron hasta el hartazgo que el jefe comunal se mantendría prescindente de la interna entre Larreta y Bullrich, una interna que no avala y por la que casi decide no postularse en busca de la reelección. Pero la incógnita era cómo harían para impulsar candidatos a la Legislatura y seguir siendo equidistantes. El plan era el siguiente: empujar a Emiliano Giri en la lista de Larreta y a Johanna Panebianco, en la de Bullrich. Ambos son dirigentes del Pro y si bien apoyan claramente a Montenegro ninguno es de su riñón.

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El plan, sin embargo, sufrió una alteración. Giri finalmente recaló en la lista de diputados nacionales y su lugar para la Legislatura provincial lo ocupó el actual concejal Fernando Muro. “Es lo mismo, nos vamos a mantener afuera de la interna. Gane quien gane vamos a tener un diputado provincial”, señalaron cerca del jefe comunal.

Fernando Muro irá en busca de una banca en la Legislatura.

No obstante, otros plantean que el cambio de nombres inclina la balanza hacia un sector. “Muro es Montenegro, Panebianco puede tener muy buena relación pero responde a Vidal. No es lo mismo. Parece un guiño a Larreta”, analizó un concejal con mandato vigente ante la consulta de 0223. Otro dato que apoya esta teoría: aquellos que con mucha seguridad sostenían el triunfo de Bullrich al calor de las encuestas hoy matizan esa mirada. “En campaña unos son muy prolijos y los otros no tanto”, apuntan.  

El correr de la campaña mostrará si finalmente el jefe comunal logra la difícil misión de salir indemne de una interna que escalará –este miércoles fue una muestra clara- a medida que se acerque el 13 de agosto.

Raverta y Pulti trabajaron durante los dos últimos años para construir el acuerdo que sellaron el 14 de junio y transformaron en lista el último sábado. Esa lista deja en claro que el acuerdo no fue sólo de nombres: además de la postulación a la Legislatura del exintendente, Acción Marplatense aportó el primer candidato a concejal (Horacio Taccone) y la cuarta (Eva Ayala).

Horacio Taccone encabezará la lista de Encuento Marplatense.

El Frente de Todos, rebautizado en las últimas horas Unión por la Patria, tiene una conformación amplia y un escenario difícil: renueva cinco concejales esta elección. La representación de AM en la lista, en ese escenario, es alta. Los lugares expectantes los completaron los radicales en el Frente de Todos, con Valeria Crespo en el segundo lugar, y el Frente Renovador, con Juan Manuel Cheppi en el tercero. Recién en el quinto lugar aparece un dirigente de Raverta: Diego García, delegado del Ministerio de Desarrollo Social de la Nación.

Sin embargo, Raverta está convencida de que este acuerdo le permite volver a tener chances de ganar la Intendencia. Hace cuatro años demostró que la ciudad no es antiperonista. Estuvo a 9.700 votos de ganar y con el 37,91% que obtuvo hubiese ganado tres de las 10 elecciones ejecutivas que hubo en Mar del Plata desde el regreso de la democracia en 1983.

En ese entonces, muy pocos creían que podía lograrlo. Vale también plantear que alcanzó esa cantidad de votos con triunfos amplísimos de Alberto Fernández y Axel Kicillof en Nación y Provincia. Ese viento arrollador de 2019 que impulsó al Frente de Todos – Unión por la Patria ya no sopla tan fuerte en 2023, aun si Sergio Massa y Kicillof ganan las elecciones.

Gustavo Pulti será por primera vez candidato a diputado provincial.

Por eso, Raverta y su equipo apuestan a que Encuentro Marplatense le permita compensar el descontento que hay especialmente con el gobierno nacional y acortar la ventaja que algunas encuestas le otorgan a Montenegro. “Esperamos que uno más uno, nos dé tres: que sumemos lo que tiene el Frente de Todos y lo que tiene Acción Marplatense, pero también que gente que está indecisa se vuelque a esta opción”, plantearon cerca de la directora de Anses. En el oficialismo local confían que esa alquimia no será tan sencilla.  

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El factor Milei

El cierre de listas dejó bien posicionado a Alejandro Carrancio, referente del otro espacio que se apresta a terciar en esta elección. El referente de la Libertad Avanza en la Quinta Sección Electoral finalmente será quien encabece la lista de diputados provinciales de Javier Milei. El actual concejal también celebró la incorporación de la marplatense Juliana Santillán en la lista de diputados nacionales (con altas expectativas de ingresar al Congreso) y consiguió que la nómina que encabeza el economista Rolando Demaio lleve como concejales a dos dirigentes de su confianza, Emiliano Recalt y Cecilia Martínez.

Alejandro Carrancio buscará una banca en la Legislatura de la mano de Javier Milei.

El factor Milei todavía es una incógnita. Las encuestas que se difunden todavía le dan una alta intención de voto aunque algunos analistas afirman que “dejó de crecer”. A eso se suma que en todas las elecciones provinciales los resultados de sus candidatos fueron paupérrimos. “Con Milei en la boleta va a ser otra cosa”, dicen sus armadores. Y arriesgan alcanzar un papel clave en la definición electoral. 

Además estos tres precandidatos hay, al menos, otros nueve que competirán por la Intendencia que tendrán como objetivo superar el 1,5% de los votos válidos para poder afrontar la carrera principal: la elección general del 22 de octubre que definirá al próximo intendente de General Pueyrredon.