Falta de dólares, remarcaciones y stock: por qué la industria teme un segundo semestre "muy duro"

Falta de dólares, remarcaciones y stock: por qué la industria teme un segundo semestre
21ago

En el sector industrial todavía no hablan de una recuperación y detectan al menos tres riesgos en este segundo semestre. Para el año que viene, apuestan a una reactivación más pronunciada.

Por Nazarena Lomagno

En el sector industrial todavía no se animan a hablar de una recuperación y detectan al menos tres riesgos para el segundo semestre de 2024, aunque para el año que viene apuestan a una reactivación más pronunciada. Hay referentes que se animan a proyectar una segunda mitad del año “muy dura”. Según explican, se acaban los últimos cartuchos producto del sobre stock de 2023 y no están los dólares para sostener un aumento de las importaciones, frente a una tímida recuperación.

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La reactivación económica generalizada y sostenida se demora. Luego de sufrir caídas en el nivel de producción y capacidad instalada similares a las vistas en 2020, desde mayo en adelante algunos indicadores presentan leves mejorías intermensuales, lo que permite a algunos economistas asegurar que “la recesión tocó piso”. Por ejemplo, el patentamiento de autos creció 20,6% intermensual, la demanda de electricidad 4,6% y el despacho de cemento 17,9%, entre otros casos.

Informate másLa industria cayó 19,5% anual en junio y marcó 13 meses en bajaLa producción industrial cayó 1,8% frente al año pasadoEn medio de la interna libertaria,Lilia Lemoine apuntó contra Victoria Villarruel: "La Vice tiene una agenda propia"Ver Más

Sin embargo, entre los industriales se preguntan si realmente lo peor ya pasó. Hay quienes no se atreven a responder, pero sí admiten que el segundo semestre “será muy difícil”, porque se suman complejidades. Otros directamente sostienen un panorama fatalista: “Esto va a estar peor. Aún no tocamos fondo.”

Tras el sobre stock, baja del consumo y recesión

Los motivos son varios. Según pudo saber Ámbito, el primero tiene que ver con “el fin de los últimos cartuchos”. Producto de la inflación y la expectativa devaluatoria, el sobre stockeo fue una práctica habitual entre los empresarios durante el segundo semestre de 2023.

De esta forma lo explicó el empresario Leonardo Romano, dueño de Billiken, en el canal de YouTube, La Fábrica Podcast: “El año pasado estábamos todos sobre comprando. Vos necesitabas 10 para tu mes de trabajo y comprabas 12 o 15″.

Ahora, la situación es distinta. La inflación desacelera pero el contexto recesivo hace mella en las ventas. Ya consumido el sobre stock, la baja del consumo pone en duda la capacidad de reposición.

Así lo explican en privado: “En estos meses bancamos capital liquidando stocks, aún sin ganar plata. Sin eso, ¿cómo harán las empresas para bancarse seis meses más de crisis?”, se preguntan en caso de que la recesión se prolongue.

¿Cómo podría readaptarse el ciclo económico en este contexto? Los industriales consultados avizoran una suerte de letra “W”: períodos de leve recuperación que seguidamente se deterioran.

Es sabido ya que los “drivers” de recuperación del Gobierno no pasan por la inyección del gasto público, tampoco por los incentivos al consumo ni el aumento de la obra pública para motorizar la construcción.

El oficialismo deja bien en claro los factores por los que entiende que la economía se dinamizará: eliminación de la inflación y recomposición del crédito. Estos, a su vez, serán consecuencia de un orden fiscal inquebrantable, achicamiento significativo del Estado y, por último, la gran promesa: eliminación de impuestos.

Sin embargo, un empresario que dialogó con este medio recordó un encuentro que mantuvo en Casa Rosada hace dos semanas, en donde preguntó cuántas empresas quedarían en pie luego de la aplicación de este programa económico. “Veremos quiénes son empresarios realmente, tendrán que competir. Nosotros no vamos a intervenir”, respondieron tajantemente.

Los dólares que faltan y los precios

Mientras tanto, durante este proceso zigzagueante, donde algunos datos muestran una leve mejoría en la actividad, la otra pregunta que se escucha entre los industriales es la siguiente: “si por cada punto del PBI se necesitan tres de importaciones, ¿con qué dólares abastecerán ese nivel de demanda?”

Según LAMBDA Consultores, la acumulación de reservas internacionales netas se ubican actualmente en terreno negativo por -u$s4.800 millones y la caída acumulada del 24% del precio internacional de la soja podría profundizar aún más esta cifra, en un mes donde estacionalmente el BCRA mantiene saldo vendedor.

Mientras tanto, desde 1 de agosto las importaciones de bienes generales tienen acceso al MLC en dos cuotas, por el 50% cada una, lo que también pone presión sobre las reservas, ya que este grupo de mercancías representa más de la mitad del total de las importaciones.

Frente a este panorama, la respuesta del Gobierno también es conocida: blanqueo y posible acuerdo con el FMI -apostando a la victoria de Donald Trump- como vías de ingreso de divisas.

El último interrogante tiene que ver con los precios. Como la recuperación de la demanda, producto de la tenue recuperación salarial real en el sector privado registrado, no tiene como consecuencia directa el aumento de la oferta, “encontar el nuevo punto de equilibrio podría generar nueva remarcación de precios”, alertan industriales en diálogo con Ámbito.

¿Hay recuperación económica?: la mirada de los especialistas

Para Haroldo Montagu, economista jefe de la consultora Vectorial, “todos los indicadores de la industria van para abajo, no vemos por dónde podría venir un rebote”, además de que -advierte- “obviamente necesitas dólares para crecer y para invertir” que no están.

En su mirada, los próximos datos podrían mostrar “algún mínimo de rebote” pero solo porque “se viene de una comparación muy baja, que es el segundo semestre de 2023”. “Ojo que no se lea como un crecimiento”, advierte.

En ese sentido, Montagu sostiene que “vamos a una reconfiguración del sector industrial argentino” orientado al sector externo. “Mientras que la utilización de capacidad instalada en sectores exportadores, como petróleo, están al 80%, los sectores mercado-internistas, como autos, trabajan al 40%”, compara el economista.

Mauro González, titular de la Confederación General Pyme, cree que la situación “empeorará” porque “aún no se tocó fondo”. Admite que la recuperación del crédito está vigente, pero no se utiliza para “invertir o ampliar”; sino para “sostener la empresa”.

Para el dirigente, la diferencia entre las pequeñas y medianas empresas se profundiza en este contexto: “Las grandes tienen espalda para soportar y ajustar variables, como el empleo. Las chicas, cuando se desprenden del recurso humano, saben que enseguida se viene el cierre”, lamenta.

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