Las audiencias por un nuevo aumento de las tarifas de luz y gas y la implementación de la segmentación, que comenzarán mañana martes, volvieron a disparar dentro y fuera del Gobierno el debate por el ingreso real y la estabilidad macroeconómica. La división, una vez más, es entre quienes entienden que una nueva suba tarifaria, tras la de marzo, es necesaria para evitar un mayor déficit en las cuentas públicas y quienes sostienen que será un nuevo y duro impacto al bolsillo de la gente en el contexto de la aceleración inflacionaria de los últimos meses. 

En la primera de las audiencias, mañana martes se discutirá el precio del gas en el Punto de Ingreso al Sistema de Transporte (PIST). El miércoles será el turno de la electricidad con el Precio Estacional de la Energía Eléctrica (PEST), y el jueves, por último, se pondrá a consideración la postergada segmentación tarifaria de ambos servicios.

El nuevo esquema tarifario entrará en vigencia el mes que viene y abarcará solo a usuarios residenciales, dejará afuera por esta vez a los "grandes usuarios" industriales y comerciales.

El aumento de luz y gas que propone el Gobierno

El Ministerio de Economía ya anticipó que propondrá un esquema tarifario de "tres niveles", que discriminará entre usuarios de bajos, medios y altos ingresos. "Apunta a lograr niveles de tarifas razonables y susceptibles de ser aplicadas con criterios de justicia y equidad distributiva", explicó en un comunicado la Secretaría de Energía, que depende formalmente de Martín Guzmán. 

Los sectores de bajos ingresos están conformados por quienes reciben la tarifa social. Para ellos, el aumento será del 40% del Coeficiente de Variación Salarial (CVS) de 2021 -que elabora el Indec y equivale a la evolución de los salarios en ese período-, por lo que, tras la suba del 20% en marzo, no percibirán ahora aumento alguno en la tarifa de gas, mientras que en la de luz será de solo el 6%. No tendrán otro incremento durante todo 2022.

MÁS INFO

TarifasEl Gobierno difundió cuánto hay que ganar para dejar de tener subsidios

Por su parte, los sectores de ingresos medios percibirán durante este año una suba del 80% del CVS del año pasado. Eso significa que, tras el aumento de marzo, afrontarán ahora un aumento del 17% promedio de la electricidad en el AMBA (en usuarios de Edesur y Edenor) y del 21,5% del gas en todo el país. Durante el resto de 2022 todavía puede caberles un nuevo incremento de alrededor de 5 puntos porcentuales más en la energía eléctrica, tomando de referencia el valor actual de la tarifa.

Por último, los sectores altos están dados por alrededor del 10% de la franja de mayores ingresos y fueron delimitados tomando en cuenta las áreas geográficas más pudientes de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires y algunos barrios cerrados del resto del AMBA. Ellos, además del aumento, pasarán por fin a quedar afectados por la segmentación que Guzmán anunció por primera vez en abril de 2021, por lo que dejarán de recibir subsidios y pagarán la tarifa plena tanto en luz como en gas.

La interna del Frente de Todos 

Fuentes cercanas a Martín Guzmán ratificaron a El Destape estas cifras y desmintieron así versiones de que el Gobierno podría plantear una suba mayor, de alrededor del 38% en ambos consumos energéticos.

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A pesar de ello, este portal pudo saber de fuentes oficiales que las audiencias de esta semana despertaron "mucha tensión" dentro del Poder Ejecutivo, sacando a relucir una vez más la interna del Frente de Todos acerca de la política de ingresos y la estabilidad macroeconómica.

De ratificarse finalmente los aumentos previstos, Guzmán logrará imponerse al menos por esta vez ya que efectivizará su segundo aumento tarifario en tres meses. El primero, del 20% en marzo, era a todas luces insuficiente para disminuir en términos reales el dinero oficial destinado a subsidios tal como pedía el FMI, y quedó aún más viejo luego de la suba de los costos de la energía a consecuencia de la guerra en Ucrania. 

La celebración de estas audiencias y la propuesta oficial llevarán tranquilidad a los técnicos del Fondo, que este mismo martes iniciarán oficialmente la primera revisión del cumplimiento de las metas acordadas con la Casa Rosada en marzo.

MÁS INFO

InflaciónGuzmán defendió el programa económico en medio de la lucha contra la suba de precios

En cambio, quedará relegada la postura de los cristinistas apostados en el área económica del Gobierno, encabezados por el secretario de Energía, Darío Martínez, el interventor en Enargas, Federico Bernal, y el titular de la Secretaría de Energía Eléctica, Federico Basualdo. El planteo, ya conocido, es que no se puede presionar más a los bolsillos de la gente en momentos de crisis del ingreso real y de la aparición del fenómeno de "trabajadores formales pobres", tal como remarcó la Vicepresidenta el último viernes en Chaco.

La discusión, de todos modos, excede al Poder Ejecutivo para alcanzar también a expertos y a otros sectores del organigrama oficial y la sociedad civil.

Santiago Urbiztondo, economista de FIEL especializado en energía, sostuvo en diálogo con El Destape que incluso los aumentos previstos del 17% al 20% son insuficientes ante una inflación que este año puede rondar el 60% y un aumento tarifario nominal de menos del 30% desde 2019. "El congelamiento de tarifas podrá parecer 'a favor del pueblo', pero este tipo de medidas entre 2003 y 2015 son las que llevaron a mayores subsidios fiscales e inflación y a mayores costos de la energía y el transporte", agregó. 

Urbiztondo también cuestionó la forma en la que se implementará la segmentación, al considerar que debería estar enfocada en los sectores de menores ingresos "vía descuentos o compensaciones de suma fija", para que en cambio los demás sectores, más pudientes, no paguen tarifas distorsionadas a la baja. 

Por el contrario, Héctor Polino, titular de la ONG Consumidores Libres, afirmó a este portal que se está ante el "momento más inoportuno" para subir tarifas, ya que puede incentivar una nueva aceleración inflacionaria a partir de junio. "El usuario va a pagar más por la factura de luz y gas pero también va a pagar más en el supermercado", graficó. Polino agregó que es necesario "analizar el nivel de inversiones y rentabilidad" de las empresas eléctricas y gasíferas antes de ver si un nuevo aumento está justificado.

Una discusión similar se da en otras esferas de la administración pública. En la Defensoría del Pueblo de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, anticiparon que su titular, María Rosa Muiños, expondrá el martes que los aumentos pautados por el Gobierno para sectores medios y bajos son "razonables". Aun así, advirtieron que plantearán que haya un buen mecanismo de reclamo para quienes caigan dentro de la segmentación pero consideren que no deberían ser aclanzados por ella.

En cambio, el defensor del Pueblo de la provincia de Buenos Aires, Guido Lorenzino, afirmó a El Destape que "es inaceptable en este contexto de pérdida de ingresos pensar en aumentos de tarifas de cualquier monto". "La energía no tendría que pagarla la gente. El Gobierno debe replantear esta propuestas", agregó y propuso que sean las empresas de servicios las que "hagan el esfuerzo en este momento".